Vanquish the Virus? Australia and New Zealand Aim to Show the Way
Vanquish the Virus? Australia and New Zealand Aim to Show the Way
The
two countries, led by ideological opposites, are converging on an
extraordinary goal: eliminating the virus. Their nonpolitical approach
is restoring trust in democracy.
Australian officials closed Sydney’s iconic Bondi Beach on March 21.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times
SYDNEY, Australia — Thousands of miles from President Trump’s combative news briefings,
a conservative leader in Australia and a progressive prime minister in
New Zealand are steadily guiding their countries toward a rapid
suppression of the coronavirus outbreak.
Both
nations are now reporting just a handful of new infections each day,
down from hundreds in March, and they are converging toward an
extraordinary goal: completely eliminating the virus from their island nations.
Whether
they get to zero or not, what Australia and New Zealand have already
accomplished is a remarkable cause for hope. Scott Morrison of
Australia, a conservative Christian, and Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand’s
darling of the left, are both succeeding with throwback democracy — in
which partisanship recedes, experts lead, and quiet coordination matters
more than firing up the base.
“This
is certainly distinct from the United States,” said Dr. Peter
Collignon, a physician and professor of microbiology at the Australian
National University who has worked for the World Health Organization.
“Here it’s not a time for politics. This is a time for looking at the
data and saying let’s do what makes the most sense.”
The
dreamy prospect of near normalcy, with the virus defeated, crowds
gathering in pubs and every child back in school, is hard to imagine for
much of the United States, where testing shortages and a delayed response by Mr. Trump have led to surges of contagion and death.
And it may end up being a mirage or temporary triumph in Australia and New Zealand. Elimination means
reducing infections to zero in a geographic area with continued
measures to control any new outbreak, and that may require extended
travel bans. Other places that seemed to be keeping the virus at bay,
such as China, Hong Kong and Singapore, have seen it rebound, usually with infections imported from overseas.
Image
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern of New Zealand and her Australian counterpart, Scott Morrison, in Sydney in February.Credit...Bianca De Marchi/EPA, via Shutterstock
And
yet, if there are any two countries that could pull off a clear if
hermetically sealed victory — offering a model of recovery that elevates
competence over ego and restores some confidence in democratic
government — it may be these two Pacific neighbors with their sparsely
populated islands, history of pragmatism and underdogs’ craving for
recognition.
Far
from any global hot spot, they’ve had the advantage of time: Australia
reported its first case on Jan. 25, New Zealand on Feb. 28. But compared
to Mr. Trump and leaders in Europe, Mr. Morrison and Ms. Ardern
responded with more alacrity and with starker warnings.
Mr. Morrison banned travelers from China on Feb. 1 (a day before the United States did) and labeled the outbreak a pandemic
on Feb. 27 (two weeks ahead of the W.H.O.), while forming a national
cabinet of federal and state leaders to build hospital capacity and
guide the response.
In
New Zealand, where the government is more centralized, Ms. Ardern
introduced an alert system that led to a total lockdown less than a
month after the country’s first case emerged.
“We must fight by going hard and going early,” Ms. Ardern said.
In
both countries, the public initially resisted and then complied, in
part because the information flowing from officials at every level was
largely consistent.
Playing their own versions of explainer in chief, Mr. Morrison has veered toward conservative radio, while Ms. Ardern prefers Facebook Live. But they’ve both received praise from scientists for listening and adapting to evidence.
Image
A coronavirus testing station in Christchurch, New Zealand, last week.Credit...Mark Baker/Associated Press
“It’s
a case of politicians just not being in the way,” said Ian Mackay, an
virologist at the University of Queensland who has been involved in
response planning for the pandemic. “It’s a mix of things, but I think
it comes down to taking advice based on expertise.”
The
results are undeniable: Australia and New Zealand have squashed the
curve. Australia, a nation of 25 million people that had been on track for 153,000 cases by Easter, has recorded a total of 6,670 infections and 78 deaths. It has a daily growth rate of less than 1 percent, with per capita testing among the highest in the world.
New
Zealand’s own daily growth rate, after soaring in March, is also below 1
percent, with 1,456 confirmed cases and 17 deaths. It has just 361
active cases in a country of five million.
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These
figures put the two countries closer to Taiwan and South Korea, which
have controlled the virus’s spread for now, than to the United States
and Europe — even places seen as success stories, like Germany.
It
all started with scientists. In Australia, as soon as China released
the genetic code for the coronavirus in early January, pathologists in
public health laboratories started sharing plans for tests. In every
state and territory, they jumped ahead of politicians.
“It meant we could have a test up and running quickly that was reasonably comparable everywhere,” Dr. Collignon said.
The government then opened the budgetary floodgates to support suffering workers
and add health care capacity. When infections started climbing, many of
the labs and hospitals hired second and third rounds of scientists to
help.
Image
Wellington, New Zealand, during a lockdown on Tuesday. Credit...Mark Tantrum/Getty Images
That
collaboration set the tone. Many of the state and local task forces
spurred on by Mr. Morrison’s early action have stayed in constant
contact, drawing in academics who independently started to model the
virus’s spread. Their findings, hashed out by email, text or group
calls, have been funneled up to national decision makers.
The newly formed national cabinet
has delivered a surprising level of consensus for a country with a
loose federal system subject to high levels of discord among state
premiers, whose roles and powers resemble those of American governors.
In
late March, for example, Mr. Morrison announced an agreement to
severely tighten restrictions, banning international travel and telling
all Australians not working in essential services to stay home. Though
there was some divergence, mostly over schools, state leaders expressed
bipartisan support and have held the line even as case numbers
plummeted.
In New Zealand, public health experts pushed for an even bolder move.
Dr.
Michael Baker, a physician and professor at the University of Otago in
Wellington, became a prominent voice outside the government pushing for
elimination of the virus, not just its suppression.
He
argued that New Zealand, an island nation with a limited number of
cases, should think of the virus more like measles than influenza —
something that should be made to disappear, with rare exceptions.
Image
Police patrolling during a Sydney beach closure this month. Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times
“The
modelers said we had to go into lockdown for two months to have a high
probability of eliminating it entirely,” he said. “You have to wait
until the numbers are very low so you have the ability to stamp out an
outbreak if it occurs.”
Worrying
that the virus would spread too rapidly, Dr. Baker said he was racked
with anxiety in the first few weeks after the initial case appeared in
New Zealand. “We were on a knife’s edge,” he said. “Would we commit?”
Ms.
Ardern announced on March 23 that the country would aim for
elimination. Critics questioned whether it was possible, noting that
there might be too many asymptomatic cases to guarantee elimination.
Dr. Baker responded by citing Taiwan,
which has contained the outbreak to a point where socially distanced
normal life has returned on a densely packed set of islands with over 23
million people.
“It’s
a matter to get all the systems working,” Dr. Baker said. “The borders,
the contact tracing, the testing, the surveillance.”
In
Australia, officials are mostly discussing elimination in private, as a
potential side effect of a strategy they still describe as suppression.
Dr. Brendan Murphy, Australia’s chief medical officer, told a New
Zealand parliamentary committee last week that elimination would be a
“nirvana” scenario — an achievement that would be tough to maintain
without indefinite bans on international travel or 14-day quarantines
until a vaccine arrives.
Image
A closed exercise area in Sydney. Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times
Nonetheless,
if it happens, Dr. Murphy and his counterpart in New Zealand, Dr.
Ashley Bloomfield, would be the ones receiving accolades. Like Dr.
Anthony Fauci, the face of the American government’s scientific
response, they are known for extensive public health pedigrees, calm
demeanors and no-nonsense adherence to facts.
Dr.
Bloomfield, who, tieless and with rumpled hair, has hosted online
question-and-answer sessions almost every day, has become a celebrity of
straight-talking reassurance. An artist in Wellington has even started selling towels that show his face surrounded by hearts.
He and others like him at the local level are key factors in a revival of trust in government that has appeared in poll after poll lately, even as the two countries’ economies have cratered and people have been told to severely restrict their lives.
The question is what that revival might produce in the future.
Ms.
Ardern and Mr. Morrison have already discussed reopening travel between
the two countries, and some scientists wonder if eliminating the virus
with good management might rebuild some faith not just in democracy, but
also in the value of expertise.
“It
does feel like we’re pulling together and pulling in the same direction
at the moment,” said Dr. Mackay, the immunologist at the University of
Queensland. “I hope we can maintain that.”
“Maybe we’ll see the return of science,” Dr. Mackay added. “I doubt it, but who knows.”
Image
A Sydney suburb, usually packed with partygoers and tourists, was quiet on a recent Saturday night.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times
Correction:
An earlier version of this article misstated the population of Taiwan. It is over 23 million, not 18 million.
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